Few days back I got a forward email from one of my classmate stating “Stop buying foreign products to Save Indian Rupee”. I was totally curious to see many are recommending and appreciating her for forwarding such email. I would have done the same if I was a fresher and doesn’t know about the gr8 world “Economy”. Now many are working in software industry and would have got enough opportunity to get to explore/know about the Economy.
I have copied here my email response to my class mates. You can comment on my thoughts if I have written anything wrong.
Hmm.. Nice to see few social activists who really care about India and it’s economy despite many of us happy to settle in aboard.
Reply to AAA, who forward the email, I think you have stroked very broad topic. It is tightly coupled with many other complex issue which we known/unknown. Regarding your thoughts on Cold drink, what are you say? Suddenly all Indians started drinking cold drinks instead of water? OR people of India started using foreign products only from last four months?
As a bank staff, let me put my thoughts.
If you guys have a look at the historical Exchange rates graph, you could realise the Indian rupee started weakening rapidly from August 5 (You can refer at http://www.x-rates.com/d/INR/USD/graph120.html ). So what happed on August 5? As you all aware RBI hiked banks interest rates 12 (I believe..) times from last 16 months believing that it could control inflation. Please be aware that when whenever central bank RBI hikes interest rates it means for Banks. Not for an individuals. Whenever RBI Increases Repo rate (Whenever the banks have any shortage of funds they can borrow it from RBI. Repo rate is the rate at which our banks borrow rupees from RBI. A reduction in the repo rate will help banks to get money at a cheaper rate. When the repo rate increases borrowing from RBI becomes more expensive) andCRR (Cash reserve Ratio (CRR) is the amount of funds that the banks have to keep with RBI. If RBI decides to increase the percent of this, the available amount with the banks comes down. RBI is using this method (increase of CRR rate), to drain out the excessive money from the banks) Banks are really nuisance to manage their Liquidities. So banks are forced to increate the Interest rates to their customers (Running Banks in India is not really easy as all we think! and also banks should not be a loser at any point of time!!). Also Banks cannot get the required amount only from RBI OR Customers through deposits (Bank should pay interest for those amounts.). In early August, banks started converting foreign currencies to maintain their CRR. Again it was just a start. After a month the Euro zone (Greece was about to default in early Sep 2011 followed by Italy and Spain) crises bombed and almost all the corporate started converting Forex to INR expecting double dip. INR started weakening that time and our NRI also used that opportunity which caused historic low.
If you see few currencies like Israeli Currency Shekel and New Zealand Dollar, graph is still flat (You can see by changing the base currency). This clearly shows these currencies were not traded compare to USD, GBP and EUR etc.
We are in Globalize world and we can’t live without global products like mobile, computer etc (As Viswa rightly pointed out India/Indians makes more money on globalize products. I don’t want to touch that again.). We need more governance and policies to really make stronger Rupee like CRR in FX possibly. It is up to the RBS, Finance Ministry, Govt of India and commerce Ministry, Govt of India. As individuals, we can just feel for it. Nothing more..
@ChanraMohan my dear chutty friend,
What kind of back up plan you are expecting sir? As you know, it is not like a project where one can give backup for others. We are creating more service oriented organization (to solve others problem) targeting shorter profits instead of creating our own products. It will work for long run. We need more product oriented IT companies for longer sustain in the IT market and other Market areas like automobile, textile etc.
@Phalgun, my dear first yea roomee,
The current exchange prices are not results of globalization for above mentioned reasons. Probably it might influence in few percentages. If you remember we came across recession in 2008, even that time FX was not that bad comparing now. Hope you will agree.
Cheers,
-NJN